Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East about a month ago, analysts have focused primarily on energy market data.

On March 2, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway responsible for transporting about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies. Since then, oil prices have surged sharply.

Prices jumped to more than $110 per barrel, prompting the United States to launch an operation to reopen the strait by deploying aircraft and helicopters to the region.

However, while markets are closely watching oil prices and fearing fuel shortages, other commodities are stranded in the Gulf and could have painful repercussions.

Helium

It may come as a surprise to some that helium’s uses extend far beyond party balloons, as it is a key element in semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging, and space technologies.

Qatar produces about one-third of global helium supply, which passes through the strait, but it has been forced to halt production following the outbreak of the war, with warnings that strikes on energy infrastructure will further paralyze exports.

Helium transport is also complex, as it is stored in insulated containers for between 35 and 48 days in liquid form.

After that period, the molecules begin to warm and leak, meaning shipments stranded in the strait quickly lose their value, disrupting supply chains.

Helium is a vital component in semiconductor production, including chips used in artificial intelligence models, which could affect shares of major technology companies already facing concerns about a potential AI sector bubble.

Other uses

Helium is also used in MRI machines to cool magnets and in the space sector to clean rocket fuel tanks.

Demand is expected to rise in the space industry as more private companies enter the field, such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.

Thomas Abraham-James, CEO of Pulsar Helium, said the current crisis presents two simultaneous challenges for the helium market.

He added that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means that even if infrastructure remains intact, products cannot reach markets.

He explained that supply could begin to resume within weeks if tensions ease, but a return to normal production levels could take months, while restoring damaged capacity may take years.

Fertilizers

Fertilizer components that support nearly half of global food production also pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf countries account for about 49% of global urea trade, a nitrogen-rich fertilizer used in crops such as wheat.

Urea prices have risen more than 40% since the outbreak of the war, at a sensitive time coinciding with the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning the impact could reach consumers.

The impact is not limited to prices, as supply shortages could lead to lower agricultural output due to difficulty in obtaining fertilizers.

Ammonia prices have also risen by about 20%, another key fertilizer component, at a time when producing countries such as Qatar have been forced to halt production due to strikes and the closure of the strait.

Analysts believe that continued disruptions could increase pressure on agricultural markets and raise the risk of global food inflation.

Copper prices rose during Wednesday’s trading after declining in the previous session following Iran’s denial of holding talks with the United States to end the war in the Middle East. However, the red metal found support from Washington’s announcement of a 15-point document outlining conditions to end the war with Tehran.

The metal had ended Monday’s session up 2% after Donald Trump spoke of “very good and productive negotiations” with Tehran and decided to delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

The New York Times reported that the United States sent a peace plan to Iran to end the war, citing unnamed officials. It added that the 15-point plan was delivered via Pakistan. However, the two sides remain far apart, while mutual attacks continue. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the United States intends to deploy the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

The peace plan report came after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States is “currently holding negotiations” with Iran, adding that Tehran is “acting rationally” and appears open to reaching a peace agreement. In contrast, Iranian state media said the country will not accept US ceasefire efforts.

Eva Manthey, a commodities analyst at ING, said: “Copper is easing today after yesterday’s rebound, as geopolitical optimism fades.”

Oil prices declined on Wednesday, easing pressure on industrial metals. This suggests a reduction in concerns that central banks will have less room to cut interest rates, and that higher fuel costs could weaken global economic growth.

Citigroup lowered its copper price forecast to $11,000 per ton over the next three months, down from a previous estimate of $14,000.

The bank noted that industrial metals may continue to decline as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as investors scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside weaker cyclical growth expectations and continued risk reduction across high-risk assets.

Elevated copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange, which reached 359,275 tons — the highest level in nearly eight years — also weighed on prices, with additional inflows of 11,800 tons recorded on Monday, more than half of which entered exchange warehouses in Kaohsiung.

The spread between cash prices and three-month contracts remains in a steep contango at around $92 per ton.

On the other hand, renewed demand from China — the world’s largest copper consumer — helped limit losses, particularly after copper inventories on Chinese exchanges declined by 5.2% last week.

In US trading, copper futures for May delivery rose 1.8% to $5.55 per pound as of 15:07 GMT.

Bitcoin rose slightly on Wednesday, holding above the $71,000 level, as investors balanced ongoing tensions in the Middle East against cautious signs of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 1% at $71,197.8 as of 02:27 AM Eastern Time (06:27 GMT).

Bitcoin had fallen below the $70,000 level earlier in the week as the conflict escalated, prompting investors to avoid risk and weighing on digital assets.

Strikes on Tehran despite Trump’s comments on negotiations

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Washington is “currently in negotiations” with Iran, adding that Tehran is “speaking rationally” and appears open to reaching a peace agreement.

Reports that the United States had presented Iran with a 15-point proposal to end the conflict also supported hopes for de-escalation.

However, conflicting developments kept investors cautious, as media reports indicated that Israel carried out strikes in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Wednesday, highlighting the fragility of any diplomatic progress.

Oil movements support risk appetite

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, giving up part of their recent gains, as markets priced in the possibility of reduced supply risks in the region, supporting overall risk appetite.

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly moving in line with global risk sentiment, reacting to shifts in geopolitical tensions and energy markets, with their earlier losses coinciding with rising oil prices.

US stock index futures also rose during Asian trading, alongside gains in Asian equities.

Altcoins post limited gains

Despite the volatile backdrop, Bitcoin showed resilience near the $70,000 level, with analysts pointing to continued institutional interest and improving liquidity conditions as supportive factors.

In the altcoin market, Ethereum rose 1.2% to $2,172, while Ripple gained 0.4% to $1.42.

Oil prices fell about 5% on Wednesday after reports indicated that the United States had presented Iran with a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war, boosting hopes for progress toward a ceasefire, despite continued airstrikes between Israel and Iran.

Brent crude futures declined by $5.66, or 5.42%, to $98.83 per barrel as of 10:22 GMT, after touching $97.57 earlier in the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $4.82, or 5.22%, to $87.53, after hitting a low of $86.72.

Both benchmark crudes had risen about 5% on Tuesday before trimming gains in later volatile trading.

Despite the price decline driven by ceasefire expectations, analysts pointed to parallel reports of US troop deployments in the Middle East, reflecting continued uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his country is making progress in negotiations to end the war, while a source confirmed that Washington had already presented the proposal to Iran.

However, some analysts expressed doubts about the seriousness of this progress, expecting market volatility to persist.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., warned that continued threats by Iran to the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices between $100 and $150 per barrel for years, adding that “we will see a global recession” if prices reach $150.

Disruptions to oil shipments through Hormuz

Developments in the Middle East remain the main driver of oil price movements, as the war has led to a near halt in shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global supplies.

The International Energy Agency described the situation as the largest disruption to oil supplies ever, with estimated daily losses of about 20 million barrels, implying a loss of roughly 500 million barrels over 25 days.

Analysts noted that the market remains tight despite the possibility of de-escalation, stressing that the resumption of flows through the strait does not necessarily mean a quick return of halted production, given uncertainty over the durability of any ceasefire agreement.

In this context, Iran informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels may pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided coordination with Iranian authorities.

To mitigate the impact of supply disruptions, oil exports from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port on the Red Sea rose to about 4 million barrels per day last week, compared to lower levels before the war.

Meanwhile, oil loading operations at Russia’s Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the Baltic Sea were halted after Ukrainian drone attacks triggered a major fire, in one of the largest strikes targeting Russian oil export facilities during the ongoing four-year war, adding to uncertainty in global markets.